Since I am on travel much of this week, my next posting with real substance will have to wait until this upcoming weekend. What I wrote on April 2 is still very much relevant.
Tropical convective forcing appears to be stalling again around 130-140E just south of the equator (centroid). The circulation response continues to be SDM Stage 1, and it is probable that will persist for at least the next 2 weeks. Given the blocking structures across the north polar latitudes, most of the CONUS would be expected to see active weather (details given in past postings).
Same story for southwest Kansas. It is interesting that the storm currently progressing into the western states looks to track farther south than many earlier model runs were predicting. The deterministic ECMWF has been performing quite well with our current ciculation regime for at least the past 1-2 weeks.