My next posting will be delayed to about next Tuesday (4/17) thanks to complications caused by a (thunder) snowstorm attributable to our GSDM Stage 3-4 regime. My thinking from the 4/11 posting remains unchanged. Tropical convective forcing is getting better organized across the Eastern Hemisphere including central Africa, the equatorial Indian Ocean ~80E and the west Pacific ~150E. We will need to monitor where this forcing consolidates. My suspicion is from ~60-120E during week 2, then possibly shift east as a MJO. I think the circulation will evolve into GSDM Stage 4 by week 2 then Stage 1 afterwards. An exceptionally active regime emphasizing the Rockies and Plains weeks 1-3 is probable. This may include several rounds of severe thunderstorms across the Plains later week 2 - week 3.