Saturday, December 10, 2005

Stay the Course, and Remain Alert

My previous discussions appear to be on track. Models continue to struggle. However, there is a clear trend in most solutions to finally represent the discontinuous retrogression of the North American ridge to ~30N/135W extending well into Alaska by about the middle of next week. This will favor trough and storm development across the Rockies and especially the Plains by around Tuesday-Wednesday (12/13-14). I have a concern that the baroclinic development across the central and northern Plains could be more robust than many models are showing (due to a form of low to high zonal wave number transition linked to the IO/Indonesian tropical convective forcing).

Most models continue to want to deepen a low around 150W and bring the ridge back into western North America during week 2. That is not consistent dynamically with the current weather-climate situation, and thus I do not agree with that notion. For those familiar, I think we will remain in SDM Stage 1. The second storm I discussed yesterday may, for the Plains, be slower than I offered (later during week 2). We will see.

For the DDC CWA, I may have been premature thinking yesterday we may not get any precipitation on about Tuesday (13 Dec). All things considered, including that we may get limited moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico (and there is moisture riding the STJ; see sat pics), attention needs to be paid to that matter. I do think the greatest impacts (particularly in terms of snowfall) will be to our northeast.

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