Friday, December 16, 2005

It is a Watching Game

Status quo prevails. During about the past 5 days the core of the tropical convective forcing has moved east generally along/slightly north of the equator from about 120E to 140E longitude. This movement appears to be linked to the recent east Asian cold air surge and faster eastward moving coherent elements within the tropical convection. A thought is for the centroid of the convection to propagate east to around 5-10S/160E in the area of at least 30C SSTs toward the end of this month. What occurs afterwards is unclear.

I like the solution offered by most models of at least an extratropical version of SDM Stage 3 starting early next week and continuing well into week 2 (at least through Christmas weekend). This means an extended north Pacific polar jet stream with at least weakly split flow across North America (strongest westerlies across Canada). Temperature and precipitation anomalies would be expected to be above and below normal, respectively, for much of the western and northwestern USA, including southwest Kansas.

Ed Berry

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