“The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service.”
As I typed on 6 June, my next discussion will not be until the weekend of 26-28 June. The global circulation is weakly tilted toward El-Nino; however, there are some mixed signals involving the weather-climate dynamical system. While tropical convective forcing "hangs back" across the region of Indonesia, a superimposed MJO signal is emerging into the Western Hemisphere. Perhaps there will be another loop in WH (2004) phase space during the next few weeks displaced toward octant 7. The WB (2009) measure of the GWO maintains its weak projection, given the recent persistent positive ~1 sigma global AAM anomaly (R1 data climatology) and minimal time tendency. Simply put, analogous to the current financial markets the GWO is moving sideways. Will this continue the remainder of boreal summer 2009?
A mixture of the snr composite anomaly plots for MJO phases 7-8 and GWO phases 8-1 loosely depicts the global atmosphere. With variations, this situation may continue going well into July. Interestingly, anomalous upper tropospheric anticyclones are starting to dominate the Southern Hemisphere subtropical atmosphere (austral winter), arguably bearish. Stay tuned!
Please see links from the 6 June posting for real-time infomation, and email me/post comments if you have questions.