Friday, July 20, 2007

Tune in Early Next Week

Due to a having to perform a civic duty today, my next posting will not be until around next Tuesday. My thoughts from the 7/17 discussion remain reasonable.

Full disk satellite imagery shows tropical convective forcing slowly organizing across the Indian Ocean centered ~5S/80E while extending through the Bay of Bengal into China. If indeed we do have a real MJO organizing, we think it is in the early stages. The global circulation remains in GSDM Stage 1 as shown by the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO). Just like a mystery movie, tune in early next week as I attempt to offer reasonable insight into what may be a critical subseasonal period concerning weather-climate linkage.

Appendix

An experimental quasi-phase space plot of the GSDM utilizing a time series of normalized relative AAM tendency anomaly (Y-axis) and normalized relative AAM anomaly time series (X-axis) can be found at

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/gcm/gsdm_95d.jpg

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/gcm/gsdm_40d.jpg

We call the behavior of this plot the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO), and one of its purposes is to extend thinking beyond the MJO.

These are probabilistic statements, and work is ongoing to quantify in future posts. We hope that an opportunity will arise for us to have a dedicated web page effort to expedite more objectively, with rigor and thoroughness. The WB (2007) paper on the GSDM has been published in the February issue of MWR. I will try to update this Blog next week around Tuesday (7/24). In general, due to covering shifts and travel, my postings on this Blog will be irregular through at least August.

Ed Berry

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