Sunday, March 26, 2006

The Atmosphere is Stuck

A writing that I had ready to post was lost by this Blogger, despite saving the drafts (about 2 hours of work!). The intent was to be an update to the posting on March 23rd. In any case, what was discussed on my last posting is still valid. I wanted to make a point about the loss of predictability in many of the models tied to the recent tropical convective flare-up across the IO. That can be seen from looking at the skill scores available from . Research work shows that loss of model skill will occur during situations when the tropical convective forcing changes abruptly during a forecast cycle; not only for week 2, but even for days 3-7 at times.

I am not going to repeat what I just lost. SDM Stage 1 is most probable for at least the next 2 weeks, with possibly Stage 2 by week 3 should the EH tropical convective forcing (currently ~centered 0/110E with weaker thunderstorm clusters across the west Pacific) move far enough to the east (to ~150E). An active weather pattern is likely for particularly the western and central parts of the country (USA), with synoptic-scale baroclinic troughs about every 3-5 days. I have a thought of a particularly strong cyclonic development during week 2 affecting the Rockies and Plains with all relevant high-impact weather concerns (see March 23 Blog for details). In some sense, we may be seeing an enhancement of our spring-time climatology, which is not unusual for a La-Nina.

Nothing different for me to offer for southwest Kansas weather. I think at least some precipitation and even a couple of severe thunderstorms are possible for about the middle of this upcoming week. More opportunities of precipitation should exist from next weekend through week 2 (~ April 9th), thanks to a somewhat southward shifted storm track due to anomalous zonal mean easterly flow across the northern high latitudes. However, it is likely the greatest precipitation amounts will be to our east and north, and southwest winds with dust storms cannot be ruled out.

I will not do another update until about Wednesday, March 29.
Ed Berry

No comments: