Equatorial SST anomalies from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific loosely exhibit a spatial pattern of cool-warm-cool with the warmth centered on
The warmest SSTs globally extend from
The cool SSTs with La-Nina have warmed respectably during the last several weeks, having anomalies ~1-2C east of the date line and totals ~25-26C. One of many important subseasonal monitoring issues will be to see if these cool SSTs survive the boreal spring portion of the seasonal cycle. There are several forecast tools suggesting this El-Viejo will persist the remainder of 2008 (see IRI link below).
In any case, we will see what happens. For readers who simply want to know when to “expect” the next severe local storms/tornado outbreak, an analogy to the above is if overnight thunderstorms will survive the morning diurnal minimum.
The following are additional links for SST information.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/forecast1/IndoPacific.frcst.html (note the initial projection)
Moist tropical convective forcing has propagated east from the Indian Ocean into the region of
There was a MJO component to the eastward shift (#4 for this boreal cold season). The WH (2004) phase space plots caught on to some of the reality of the tropical forcing, and through 28 March indicate a less than 1 sigma projection in phase 6. There was a greater than 1 standard deviation projection onto this index until 26 March. However, I think the MJO signal has become unclear. Furthermore, I am suspicious there may an attempt of air-sea coupling involving the moist tropical convective forcing discussed above. These subseasonal variations involving the tropical forcing working with other dynamical processes (a few discussed below) have been impacting the global weather for the last few months, including the
The eastward shift of the moist tropical forcing into
In several past discussions I have mentioned the possibility (and reality) of non-linear forcing-response-feedback processes tied to variable tropical convective forcing and higher latitude blocking structures. Rossby wave energy dispersions (RWDs) have linked the tropics and extratropics in at times seemingly simple patterns. However, an astute reader needs to make some effort to monitor daily (and longer averaging periods) mean animations of various wind fields (upper and lower tropospheric) working with the WB (2007) GSDM framework to see these.
RWDs linked to the recent eastward movement of moist tropical forcing contributed to a strong positive global mountain torque event peaking to ~30 Hadleys (ESRL/PSD plots using R1 data/climatology) roughly 26 March. Blocking structures located near Kamchatka and
There are a lot of other observations that I could share if the proper resources were available. For instance, I think I can argue that the positive global mountain torque event was also related to the recent poleward propagation of zonal mean easterly wind flow anomalies into the subtropical atmospheres. However, to save space, let it be typed that the positive zonal mean AAM tendency (~2 Hadleys) which started on the equator about 2 weeks ago has already shifted into the midlatitude northern hemisphere atmosphere. The RWDs tied to the convection and the positive global mountain torque may be the culprits.
My point to all this confusion is even though there was an “effort” to add westerly wind flow to the global atmosphere, much of it has gone into the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere equatorial/subtropical atmospheres. This is one reason for the lack of a decent subtropical jet across the southern USA typical of late March. Global AAM still remains low, ~minus 1 sigma, and is probable to decrease again.
Starting roughly 10 March, zonal mean easterly wind flow anomalies propagated off the equator into the subtropical Northern Hemisphere and midlatitude Southern Hemisphere atmospheres. However, for the Northern Hemisphere, through processes involving the dynamics of the baroclinic eddies (with the RWDs) there was an abrupt shift into the higher latitudes which fed back as yet another contribution to the positive global mountain torque discussed above (confused?).
One bottom line is that locations across the
Animations of various tropospheric daily mean vector wind total and anomaly fields show a nice baroclinic response to the
Most numerical ensemble prediction schemes loosely maintain the current circulation structure across the PNA sector for at least the next 2 weeks. There will be variations in amplitude and synoptic details are white noise after day 3. The GWO is probable to orbit around phase 3 (legacy GSDM Stage 1) after its recent excursion nearly into phase 5 (GSDM Stage 2).
Persistence of a northward shifted storm track across the
Repeating, this will increase the risk of high impact weather to above climatology centered on the middle of the country. Locations such as the
Drought must be a concern for the Southern and Central High Plains, particularly southwestern
Severe weather internationally has decreased during the last week. I continue to leave it to the expertise of the appropriate weather centers internationally to alert the public of these risks.
Severe thunderstorms and flooding rainfall are probable for particularly
An experimental quasi-phase space plot of the GSDM utilizing time series of normalized global relative AAM time tendency (Y-axis) and normalized global relative AAM anomaly (X-axis) can be found at
We call the behavior of this plot the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO). While the intent of the legacy GSDM is to extend current thinking beyond the MJO, the GWO quantifies variations used to derive the original GSDM in a manner that is “user friendly” analogous to the WH (2004) “convention”. In addition, the GWO plot does not have the ENSO signal removed.
Please see the revised description of the GSDM per above link. Also, I encourage the readers to study the annotated MJO and GWO phase space plots to help relate the global variations explained by those techniques to “weather”.
Links to CPC and PSD ENSO discussions:
The following is a link to information about the stratosphere:
These are probabilistic statements, and work is ongoing to quantify in future posts (for example, risk assessment maps, signal to noise ratio plots and shifts of probability). We hope that an opportunity will arise for us (soon) to have a dedicated web page effort to expedite more objectively, with rigor, thoroughness and verification. The WB (2007) paper on the GSDM has been published in the February issue of MWR. In addition, a paper is in preparation by WB that will formally introduce the GWO. Given shift work and upcoming travel, updates remain very difficult. I may not be able to post another discussion until the weekend of 12-13 April.