tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post891347400061204385..comments2023-11-02T06:10:29.606-07:00Comments on Atmospheric Insights: Update: Rogue “MJO Wave”, then “La-Nina Reloaded”Ed Berryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-12844733142960610482009-01-23T12:17:00.000-08:002009-01-23T12:17:00.000-08:00Jim, I guess you cannot always "get what you want"...Jim, <BR/><BR/>I guess you cannot always "get what you want" from the atmosphere. There are a lot behaviors I can offer that are seemingly hard to come by anymore. The reasons for them are mostly unclear, in my view. The scenario you would like to see can occur from many different circumstances; for ex., even during an El-Nino. <BR/><BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-54746566417616491262009-01-23T12:02:00.000-08:002009-01-23T12:02:00.000-08:00Hi Rocky, Thank you for the comment! I just posted...Hi Rocky, <BR/><BR/>Thank you for the comment! I just posted a brief discussion. Yes, I would be concerned about increasing dryness in your part of the world. <BR/><BR/>In regard to the other matters, not be discouraging, much of it is speculation, and I do not like to get into that. Our focus is linking weather and climate. Also, it is impossible for me to "educate" in this type of forum given our work. That was one motivation for our workshop, and I hope we will have opportunities to provide additional similar efforts. <BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-15005308846519535722009-01-23T06:48:00.000-08:002009-01-23T06:48:00.000-08:00Hey Ed: This is my first time corresponding with y...Hey Ed: This is my first time corresponding with you. I like to tell you that it's been a learning experience (a steep learning curve at that) reading your blogs every week. I read several different of these blogs and you by far seem to have the best handle on deciphering the language of what our atmosphere is telling us.<BR/><BR/>A couple of questions. My biggest concern, is our developing drought here on the southern plains. Exceptional drought conditions are occurring across much of central TX. now and even here in Okla. it's getting pretty severe. Do you see this continuing into the spring? and could this be the forerunner of an exceptionally hot and dry summer? If we don't get this turned around pretty soon, our wheat crop will be toast. Hopefully the more active subtropical jet stream may alleviate the dryness in the short term.<BR/><BR/>Second question is your take on the new speculations of "global cooling" because of the lack of sun spots. Do you really think this may have some kind of impact on our climate? I know the oceanic currents producing such patterns associated with the PDO, the NAO, etc. are much more noticeable in the shorter term.. but do you take into consideration the recent issues concerning the sun? Despite some of this hoopla about the "cooling" going on, I still see positive temperature anomalies much more than negative on a global scale.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your input. You really are making a great difference in the meteorology world.<BR/><BR/>Rocky&familyRocky Rascovichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00337270698986754430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-14773856246568344642009-01-22T19:38:00.000-08:002009-01-22T19:38:00.000-08:00So what is the bottom line of what it takes for th...So what is the bottom line of what it takes for the cold to be centered in Montana and a high amplitude ridge at 150W? That is something that has been very hard to come by in recent years.<BR/><BR/>JimUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00888619348972375129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-84819290495249275982009-01-22T13:41:00.000-08:002009-01-22T13:41:00.000-08:00Hello Jim,Thank you for the comment. I think we ar...Hello Jim,<BR/><BR/>Thank you for the comment. I think we are dealing with a lot of uncertainty (largest in at least several weeks) given the GWO/MJO signal coming back into the Eastern Hemisphere. All models are struggling badly with the synoptic evolution. <BR/><BR/>The retrogression we are seeing is tied to residual Indonesian (La-Nina) tropical forcing. The more robust response is not likely until ~later week 2/week 3 as the signals come back around (reloading La-Nina). Roughly phase 3 of both the GWO and MJO snr 250mb psi and 2m air temperatures may be most likely. An important question is how far into the western US will the ensuring GOA trough extend during the next few weeks? Stay tuned. <BR/><BR/>I think the greatest cold anomalies thus far have focused on the north central states (ex., ND,IA,MN,WI). That may be the seasonal mean outcome, all things considered. <BR/><BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-79177398739013128392009-01-21T18:00:00.000-08:002009-01-21T18:00:00.000-08:00Hi Ed,What is your take on all of the models showi...Hi Ed,<BR/><BR/>What is your take on all of the models showing the pattern deamplifying after the PNA ridge retrogrades? I thought for sure the pattern would remain amplifed, but I have serious doubts now.<BR/><BR/>Very ironic that a winter that should have featured prolonged cold in the West has mostly been cold in the eastern 2/3 of the nation. I have no idea what it will take for the West to really get a cold winter for once. Do you think we still have a decent chance of seeing more good stuff here before winter is over?<BR/><BR/>Thank you.<BR/><BR/>JimUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00888619348972375129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-53559003824757257162009-01-21T13:07:00.000-08:002009-01-21T13:07:00.000-08:00Hi Greg, Thanks for the support! Feel free to ask...Hi Greg, <BR/><BR/>Thanks for the support! Feel free to ask more questions. <BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-4191851631572369682009-01-20T14:35:00.000-08:002009-01-20T14:35:00.000-08:00First of all, I would like to thank you for answer...First of all, I would like to thank you for answering my questions.<BR/><BR/>"We want to emphasize notions such as global-zonal mean-regional scale linkages as well as forcing-response-feedback (with subsequent interactions) relationships. An important purpose is to provide a dynamical weather-climate linkage framework to evaluate the numerical models in a sophisticated manner as part of a subseasonal (and any time scale) forecast process, in addition to a climate service for all users."<BR/><BR/>This sounds exciting and I hope to learn a lot in the coming months. I wish you guys good fortune with the newer/remodeled website. <BR/><BR/>I am starting to piece togethere these atmospheric insight updates while reading the GSDM discussion.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01178598985507215566noreply@blogger.com