tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post6788544778175395713..comments2023-11-02T06:10:29.606-07:00Comments on Atmospheric Insights: Shifting Around in the Atmosphere’s Witches BrewEd Berryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-27817101098147881162009-01-03T16:34:00.000-08:002009-01-03T16:34:00.000-08:00Jim and others, Thank you for the comments and int...Jim and others, <BR/><BR/>Thank you for the comments and interaction! I just published another discussion. <BR/><BR/>I think it would be very interesting to examine the GWO with other diagnostics for interdecadal and related variations. That would help us with subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. Right now, I have to "take one thing at a time". For example, what would the composites look like with the ENSO signal left in, especially for the MJO? <BR/><BR/><BR/>All the best,<BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-82448036266225476132009-01-03T10:24:00.000-08:002009-01-03T10:24:00.000-08:00Dean,I am no Ed Berry but I do have a few thoughts...Dean,<BR/><BR/>I am no Ed Berry but I do have a few thoughts about your question. There are a few possible reasons the SE was so cold in the 1960s and the NW was warmer. In the late 1940s and 1950s the NW had an extreme cold period that was apparently caused by a combination of very low PNA, low AAM, very low PDO, and high AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). In the 1960s the AMO very suddenly flipped to negative at the same time the PDO and PNA moderated a bit. The reuslt was a switch to a much colder east and warmer West (although the West still had some very cold winters thrown in during the 1960s). At present we seem to be in more of a 1950s regime with very low PDO and fairly high AMO.<BR/><BR/>I hope this helps.<BR/><BR/>JimUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00888619348972375129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-7565977046459679792008-12-29T10:22:00.000-08:002008-12-29T10:22:00.000-08:00Hello Jason and Dean,Thank you for the questions. ...Hello Jason and Dean,<BR/><BR/>Thank you for the questions. About the +PNA possibility, should that occur during ~later week 2 into 3, I do think it will be transient. In some sense, this behavior is similar to the perturbations we had on La-Nina a year ago. <BR/><BR/>We are seeing a GWO feedback leading to an eastward shift of convection into roughly the SPCZ and a subsequent extended North Pacific Ocean jet. There is already evidence westerly wind flow is accelerating in the NH zonal mean subtropics (~30N). However, "things may snap back" afterward. That typed, the southwest Pacific Ocean is anomalously warm, and if a fundamental circulation change is to occur, now is the time given seasonal cycle issues. We will carefully monitor. <BR/><BR/>This situation may lead to high impact weather affecting a large part of the country roughly mid-late next week. That includes more Arctic air perhaps focussed on the Northern/Central Plains and heavy precipitation possibly most intense across the Plains and Ohio Valley. Any yes, there may be an East Coast storm situation before this is "all said and done". <BR/><BR/>Dean, that would be something I would have to look at carefully. There are a lot of issues, including starting with the data sources. Regardless, every year is different and there are no "magic numbers". Non-linear feedbacks (like we are observing right now) always happen, and can/do lead to less probable seasonal mean outcomes. The latter further emphasizes the need for linking weather and climate (understanding subseasonal variability) and daily monitoring.<BR/><BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-37213817875340378502008-12-28T06:29:00.000-08:002008-12-28T06:29:00.000-08:00Hello Ed;I found it interesting in the Low-AAM dec...Hello Ed;<BR/><BR/>I found it interesting in the Low-AAM decade of the 60's that the Southeast averaged cooler in terms of surface temperature while the west was warmer.<BR/><BR/>Is there a tipping point when feedback to oceanic cooling on land leads to inverse outcomes (cool/wet where previously warm/dry)?<BR/><BR/>Thanks!!!<BR/><BR/>DeanCaptain Climatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04439209373741954153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-38166041330234335812008-12-27T21:26:00.000-08:002008-12-27T21:26:00.000-08:00Ed,Enjoy you blog. In your opinion, how long do yo...Ed,<BR/><BR/>Enjoy you blog. In your opinion, how long do you think we will see the positve PNA on the West Coast last for. The GFS and the EC have the +PNA for at least 3 weeks, as I don't see it breaking down on the ensemble members.<BR/><BR/>Your insight would be appreciated.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/><BR/>Jason<BR/><BR/>jam472@yahoo.com<BR/>NWS Spotter LAC 254jam472https://www.blogger.com/profile/14542430861105719985noreply@blogger.com