tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post6254700362107270784..comments2023-11-02T06:10:29.606-07:00Comments on Atmospheric Insights: AAM Rally in a Bear Atmosphere Ed Berryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-57934415918989707382009-03-10T18:59:00.000-07:002009-03-10T18:59:00.000-07:00Hi Jason, Sorry for my slow response. Retrogressi...Hi Jason, <BR/><BR/>Sorry for my slow response. Retrogression is occurring as I type. It will be a matter of how far south the next trough digs while still in the east Pacific. <BR/><BR/>Yes, I would be much more confident for locations such as SFO on north receiving decent precipitation starting ~late week-2 through week-3. However, this base state favors anomalous ridges suggesting deeper troughs having AWB characteristics. Bottom line, there is some hope for southern CA; however, drought breakers are unlikely. The same can be said for the central and southern High Plains. <BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-47187589891434457132009-03-10T18:37:00.000-07:002009-03-10T18:37:00.000-07:00Hi Ed,Thanks for your response, and I will be moni...Hi Ed,<BR/>Thanks for your response, and I will be monitoring and inform you.<BR/><BR/>GFS ensembles are shocking for the period between 21 and 23 March, I hope they are true!<BR/><BR/>Take Care,<BR/>Moh'dJordanWeather Forecasters Teamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15638618469415622963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-68981065069789143742009-03-10T18:36:00.000-07:002009-03-10T18:36:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.JordanWeather Forecasters Teamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15638618469415622963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-77837682707236506572009-03-08T21:37:00.000-07:002009-03-08T21:37:00.000-07:00Ed,Thanks for the blog. Us down in Southern Califo...Ed,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the blog. Us down in Southern California, and even in California are under a state emergency, due to the drought. We are concerned about the drought, and how La Nina, the past two winter seasons, has provided very little rain fall, and marginal snow pack in the sierra's. Therefore, Do you feel the current Pacific ridge that is retrograding back towards the west coast from 150W, will in fact move back to 160W, to allow some more pacific troughs to enter our state by the end of the month? Currently, the GFS and CPC indicate the next 10-14 days, as having much below precipitation, and much below temperatures for the west coast, which is not contusive for our situation. Any thoughts you can shed on the situation, would be appreciated.<BR/>Thanks<BR/><BR/>Jasonjam472https://www.blogger.com/profile/14542430861105719985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-57491274811892069052009-03-08T17:29:00.000-07:002009-03-08T17:29:00.000-07:00Hello Moh'd,Thank you for the response. I think th...Hello Moh'd,<BR/><BR/>Thank you for the response. I think the January map you show would be an extreme case meaning Arctic air plunging well into the Mediterranean (Med). However, my thought would be more troughs digging into the Med then shifting your way. Any cold air (not Arctic) across eastern Europe will likely get dislodged by them. <BR/><BR/>During ~week-2 there may be enough ridge amplification west of Europe that would increase the odds for Arctic air (for this time of year) to get involved with these systems that could impact the Middle East. In any case, you know your region a lot better than I do. <BR/><BR/>Take care,<BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-5952433612622124442009-03-08T17:14:00.000-07:002009-03-08T17:14:00.000-07:00Hi Greg, Thank you for the feedback. I have also r...Hi Greg, <BR/><BR/>Thank you for the feedback. I have also read/heard similar results relating QBO phase and tropical cyclone activity (ex., Bill Gray). The physical reasoning has generally been that the easterly (westerly) phase enhances (decreases) vertical wind shear in the upper portion of the storms. <BR/><BR/>I can see some rationale to this thinking. However, we have not yet incorporated the QBO into our GWO work. There have been numerous occasions I have given some speculation during a "weather-climate event".<BR/><BR/>Enjoy the warm weather!<BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-69708372586631390722009-03-07T14:32:00.000-08:002009-03-07T14:32:00.000-08:00Hi Ed, Thanks for your reply.In general, High Pres...Hi Ed,<BR/> Thanks for your reply.<BR/>In general, High Pressure developing over north Atlantic is not that good for my area, because low pressure systems dig into western and middle Mediterranean, and then goes NE far away from us, while some movement for the high pressure '' as you describe'' to the east could somehow help us for harsh winter to be back! Because there is a well-developed cold area over Eastern Europe in the next 2 weeks so any ridging could enter Europe most probably will force that cold air to stick towards the Middle East directly.<BR/><BR/> I want to ask you about the following map (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra2/2000/Rrea2000012512.gif), is this map we could describe as a similar pattern expected for the next 2 weeks?? Although the map I put is for January not March.<BR/><BR/> Thanks for your responds and rich information,<BR/> Moh'dJordanWeather Forecasters Teamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15638618469415622963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-75937512113073665412009-03-07T13:32:00.000-08:002009-03-07T13:32:00.000-08:00I did see your response on the previous post. From...I did see your response on the previous post. From my understanding there is a sharp decrease in hurricane activity when we see an east phase QBO as opposed to a west.<BR/><BR/>"During the QBO, Atlantic tropical cyclones are more frequent when 30 mb winds are westerly and increasing, rather than easterly and increasing. There have been 44% more hurricanes and 74% more hurricane days during the west as opposed to east phase of the QBO."<BR/><BR/>http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weather456/comment.html?entrynum=103&tstamp=200804<BR/><BR/>I am not sure how the producer of this quotation came up with that statistic.<BR/><BR/>As much as I hate to see my 70 degree temperatures of today go by the wayside, one more winter storm to follow won't hurt.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01178598985507215566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-82659060855350328482009-03-07T12:22:00.000-08:002009-03-07T12:22:00.000-08:00Hi Greg, Thank you for the comment and support! I ...Hi Greg, <BR/><BR/>Thank you for the comment and support! I did respond to your question on my previous post. <BR/><BR/>According to the criteria of 5 consecutive 3 month periods of minus 0.5C and lower for Nino 3.4, I would offer that is unlikely with our current cold event. However, CPC in their diagnostics discussion has been acknowledging we are in a La-Nina with the ONI less than minus 0.5C.<BR/><BR/>My feeling is ENSO is an interannual global variation involving the entire ocean-atmosphere-land dynamical system. From that perspective, one can argue La-Nina has been around since December 2006. At the very least, scientifically, a multivariate index for ENSO is much more representative. That is why I feel the the MEI is a much better measure than the ONI. <BR/><BR/>Finally, a period of a true -NAO may evolve ~week-2/3 which could increase the risk of another east coast storm. We will see what happens.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-23423507002451228042009-03-06T19:03:00.000-08:002009-03-06T19:03:00.000-08:00Hello Ed,From what I have gathered, the spike of S...Hello Ed,<BR/><BR/>From what I have gathered, the spike of SSTs in Nino regions 4 and 3.4 will soon stop.<BR/><BR/>Is there any chance of this becoming an official La-Nina ? <BR/><BR/>Also, from your last comment you made it appears that you believe there will be an anomalous strong -NAO, coupled with possible central/eastern U.S troughing according to your atmospheric update, it looks like there is potential for yet another major east coast storm.<BR/><BR/>I'm ready for spring, but I wouldn't mind another shot at a good snowstorm.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your continuous dedication with the updates.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01178598985507215566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-27216882793362978152009-03-06T17:23:00.000-08:002009-03-06T17:23:00.000-08:00Hello Moh'd, Good to hear from you! Glad that you...Hello Moh'd, <BR/><BR/>Good to hear from you! Glad that you are finally enjoying some nicer weather. I have been quite busy, like you. <BR/><BR/>I agree that the weather may get more active for you week-2, as ridging intensifies across the North Atlantic and possibly expands into the regions of Greenland and Scandinavia. In fact, there may be 2 centers that develop, one around northwest Europe/Scandinavia and the other possibly retrograding into eastern Canada/northwest Atlantic. We have seen "this kind of behavior" a few times already this winter. <BR/><BR/>We will see far southeast the downstream trough will develop. Worst case scenario is much of the Middle East could get hammered with another intense Mediterranean baroclinic cyclone having high winds and severe thunderstorms. I would think you active (wet) season should end soon. <BR/><BR/>Best regards,<BR/>EdEd Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00969068496887623697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19673832.post-39227306032088388602009-03-06T15:56:00.000-08:002009-03-06T15:56:00.000-08:00Hi Ed, How are you??Thanks for your amazing post. ...Hi Ed,<BR/> How are you??<BR/>Thanks for your amazing post.<BR/><BR/> I want to comment on the point that talked about "Numerical Weather Prediction", the low accuracy very noticeable in our region, there are many mistakes even in the +24Hour range, and deadly mistakes!! As example the shape of the trough, temperatures at different levels, and others. I had a very hard work last week as a result of the low accuracy.<BR/><BR/> According to the weather prevailing now, after we had consecutive very wet systems since middle of February, we are now enjoying the sunshine, and the vernal temperatures. Today temperatures reached in Amman about 24c and tomorrow the forecasts indicates about 28c, and exactly the same day last week we had 7c as a max!! How is the atmosphere crazy!<BR/><BR/> Some signs start to show, that there is something serious heading for us sometime between 15-21 March, and there are signs for strong blocking over Western Greenland, also over UK and Western Europe?? <BR/> Please advice what are your thoughts for the situation in our area?<BR/><BR/> Finally, we had huge amounts of rain in the last week system, and snow covered wide areas in the mountains. Some areas got their season average!!<BR/><BR/> Regards,<BR/>Moh'dJordanWeather Forecasters Teamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15638618469415622963noreply@blogger.com